如果把最近几个月的美国新闻放在一起看，会发现它们指向同一条主线：美国要的不再只是“从全球各地买货”，而是尽量在美国本土生产。

If we look at several major U.S. news stories from the last few months together, they clearly point to one main theme: the United States no longer wants to simply “buy from everywhere”; it increasingly wants to “produce at home.”

第一则，是关于关税的升级。2025 年，美国总统依据《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA），对来自墨西哥和加拿大的全部进口商品加征 25% 额外关税（部分加拿大能源与矿产为 10%），并将此前对中国所有商品的 IEEPA 附加关税从 10% 提高到 20%，这些都叠加在原有关税基础之上。这意味着：不仅中国，连过去被视为“近岸制造基地”的墨西哥和加拿大，也被拉进了新一轮关税体系。

The first example is a new round of tariff escalation. In 2025, under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), the U.S. imposed an additional 25% tariff on all imports from Mexico and Canada (10% on certain Canadian energy and mineral products), and raised the IEEPA surcharge on all Chinese imports from 10% to 20%, on top of existing tariffs. This means that not only China but also Mexico and Canada—previously seen as “nearshoring hubs”—are being pulled into the new tariff regime.

在今年之前，我们做的更多是宏观与策略层面的分析报告，核心都是在回答一个问题：“值不值得出海？要不要在美国投资建厂？” 这些报告帮助企业家判断“干还是不干”。而从这一系列开始，我们默认一个前提——企业已经基本做出了“要干”的战略选择，现在要集中解决的，是 “决定了干之后，应该怎么干、怎么干得更稳、更快、更少踩坑。”
Before this year, most of our work focused on macro-level and strategic analysis, essentially answering one question: “Is it worth going overseas? Should we invest in building a plant in the U.S.?” Those reports were meant to help entrepreneurs decide whether to act at all. With this new series, we assume a different premise — that companies have broadly decided “yes, we will do it.” The focus now shifts to a new question: “Once the decision is made, how exactly should we execute — more steadily, more efficiently, and with fewer missteps?”

本报告是“赴美投资与本土化”系列中的第一篇，重点聚焦顶层资金安排与海外架构设计，为后续关于建厂实操层面（“人、机、料、法、环”五大条件）的报告提供基础框架。
This report is the first in a series on “Investment and Localization in the U.S.” It focuses on top-level capital planning and overseas structuring, and provides the foundational framework for subsequent reports that will address practical plant-construction issues through the five-factor lens of People, Equipment, Materials, Methods, and Environment.

本报告在系统梳理 2022–2025 年中日政治关系与经贸往来的基础上，结合公开数据、行业研究、企业年报及最新事件（包括 2025 年 11 月台湾局势相关争端升级、中国军方对日本发出“若越界将付出痛苦代价”的强硬警告），重点分析日本“经济安全”战略下对华政策的调整方向，以及丰田、索尼、日立等主要日系企业在华与全球布局的最新变化，并评估其中对中国产业结构、供应链安全和企业战略的影响。

Based on a systematic review of China–Japan political relations and economic ties from 2022 to 2025, this report combines public statistics, industry research, corporate annual reports, and recent events—including the escalation of tensions over Taiwan in November 2025, when China’s military warned Japan it would “pay a painful price” if it crossed certain red lines. It focuses on how Japan’s “economic security” strategy is reshaping its China policy, analyzes the latest changes in the China and global layout of major Japanese corporations such as Toyota, Sony, and Hitachi, and assesses the implications for China’s industrial structure, supply-chain security, and corporate strategy.

在《中日关系最新演变及其对中国产业的影响》报告一中，我们从宏观层面分析了中日政治与经贸关系的演变，以及主要日系企业在华与全球布局的最新动向。总体结论是：日本在国家安全与高科技领域对华明显收紧，但在制造与消费领域仍保持较高经贸依存度，并通过“China+1”战略降低对中国单一制造基地的依赖。

In Report 1, we analyzed the evolution of China–Japan political and economic relations and the latest moves of major Japanese companies in China and worldwide. In summary, Japan has clearly tightened its stance toward China in national security and high-tech fields, while maintaining a high degree of economic dependence on China in manufacturing and consumption, and is reducing dependence on China as a single production base via a “China+1” strategy.

本报告面向中国汽车及相关供应链企业的负责人及团队，系统梳理特斯拉（Tesla）与通用汽车（GM）近期被报道的“限期减少或剥离中国零部件”的举措，结合美国关税、税收补贴与安全审查新规，对未来 3–5 年中美供应链格局进行趋势研判，并提出针对中国企业的出海与本地化布局建议。
This report is intended for the board chairs, CEOs, and senior executives of Chinese automotive and related supply chain companies. It systematically reviews recent reports that Tesla and General Motors (GM) are asking suppliers to reduce or eliminate China-sourced parts within specified deadlines, and it connects these developments with new U.S. policies on tariffs, tax credits, and security reviews to forecast the U.S.–China supply chain landscape over the next 3–5 years and propose overseas and localization strategies tailored to Chinese firms.

一、政策信号：并非“停摆”，而是监管升级

1. Policy Signal: Not a Shutdown, but a Regulatory Upgrade

2025 年墨西哥财政与经济部宣布暂停 IMMEX 4.0 平台审批与数据接入。
该系统旨在实现实时追踪原料、库存、产能与用工数据，配合 USMCA 新规确保供应链透明。

In 2025, Mexico’s Ministry of Finance temporarily suspended the IMMEX 4.0 platform’s approvals and data connections.
The system was designed for real-time tracking of materials, inventory, capacity and labor data to enforce supply-chain transparency under the new USMCA rules.

此举表明：

墨西哥在清理旧项目、强化执法；

USMCA 原产地、劳工与环保条款进入全面执行期；

“数字化+可追溯”成为政策核心。

This move shows that Mexico is cleaning up legacy projects and strengthening enforcement, while the USMCA’s origin, la

Global Landscape and Industry Assessment

家电产业是制造业自动化率最高、供应链最成熟的行业之一。
The home appliance industry is among the most automated and supply-chain-integrated sectors of manufacturing.

在全球制造重构和供应链安全趋势下，家电产业的重心正重新向北美转移。
Amid global manufacturing restructuring and supply-chain security concerns, the center of gravity for home appliance production is shifting back to North America.

在众多细分领域中，空调（HVAC） 已成为未来五年最确定的增长赛道：
Among all subsectors, air conditioning (HVAC) stands out as the most certain growth track for the next five years.

1. Industry Background and Global Landscape

稀土元素（Rare Earth Elements, REE）是现代高端制造的“隐形支柱”，广泛用于新能源汽车电机、风力发电、国防装备、电子元件与半导体等核心领域。
Rare Earth Elements (REE) are the “invisible foundation” of modern advanced manufacturing, used in EV motors, wind turbines, defense systems, electronic components, and semiconductors.

截至2025年，全球稀土产业链依然高度集中于中国：
As of 2025, the global rare earth supply chain remains highly concentrated in China:

中国掌握约 60% 的全球稀土矿产资源开采能力；

China controls roughly 60% of global rare earth mining capacity;

分离精炼与提纯能力占全球约 80–85%；

It holds about 80–85% of global refining and separation capacity;

NdFeB 永磁体等高端磁材产能集中度超过 90%。

Over 90% of global NdFeB magnet production is based in China.

然而，随着中美战略竞争升级与供应链安全意识提升，稀土产业正在成为“去中国化”最典型的战场。
However, rising U.S.–China strategic tensions and supply-chain security concerns are transforming the rare earth sector into the most prominent “de-Sinicization” battlefield.

Executive Summary

年度注塑设备投资需求（中枢场景）：约 7.32 亿美元。
Annual injection molding equipment investment demand (base case): approx. USD 732 million.

计算基于 2024 年美国新车销量约 1,580 万辆 与单车塑料/聚合物复合材料价值 695 美元。
Calculation based on 2024 U.S. new vehicle sales of approx. 15.8 million units and per-vehicle plastics/composites value of USD 695.

塑料件产值 = 1,580 万 × $695 = 109.81 亿美元 → 设备投资 ≈ 109.81 ÷ 15 = 7.32 亿美元。
Plastics component output = 15.8M × $695 = USD 10.981 billion → equipment investment ≈ 10.981 ÷ 15 = USD 732 million.

范围/不确定性：在 1,500–1,640 万辆销量区间，年设备投资约 6.95–7.60 亿美元。
Range/uncertainty: for 15.0–16.4M sales, annual investment approx. USD 695–760 million.

结论：北美汽车行业塑料件本土化率高，注塑设备投资规模稳定在 7 亿美元级，并带动配套模具、机器人和辅助设备形成 80–160 亿美元/年的综合市场（中枢 ≈ 120 亿美元）。
Conclusion: With high localization, injection molding equipment investment remains stable at the USD 700M level, driving molds, robots, and auxiliaries to form a USD 8–16B annual market (midpoint ≈ USD 12B).

客户需求背景

Client Demand Background

熊猫快餐（Panda Express）需求明确

Panda Express 在美国拥有约 2,400 家门店，是全美最大的中式快餐连锁品牌。

当前正积极寻找 美国本土供应商，希望替代从中国或东南亚进口的不可降解餐具和包装。

他们已经联系 Nepwins，希望由 Nepwins 牵头在美国设立本地化生产工厂，确保长期合规供应。

Panda Express Demand:

Panda Express operates ~2,400 stores across the U.S., making it the largest Chinese fast-food chain in the country.

The company is actively seeking U.S.-based suppliers to replace imported non-compostable tableware and packaging from China/Asia.

Panda Express has approached Nepwins directly, requesting that Nepwins lead the establishment of a U.S.-based production facility to secure long-term compliant supply.